As the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season officially gets underway today, June 1, 2026, cruise passengers may be getting some welcome news. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is forecasting a quieter-than-normal season, with fewer storms expected to form between now and November 30.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook, released May 21, predicts a below-average season driven largely by the anticipated development of El Niño. NOAA predicts a 55 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 35 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season.
Scientists expect between eight and 14 named storms this year. Of those, three to six are expected to become hurricanes, including one to three major hurricanes with Category 5 storm winds reaching at least 111 miles per hour.
A typical Atlantic season produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. Last year, in 2025, there were 13 named storms, five hurricanes, and four major hurricanes of a Category 3 or higher.
NOAA said it has a 70 percent confidence level in its 2026 projections.
Forecasters said competing weather patterns are influencing hurricane season, with ocean temperatures expected to remain slightly above average and trade winds weaker than normal. These conditions can fuel storm development.
However, the anticipated arrival of El Niño could suppress hurricane formation. El Niño occurs when Pacific Ocean waters become unusually warm, increasing wind shear over the Atlantic and making it more difficult for storms to organize and intensify.
Still, NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said, “there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold.”
He says it is essential to review hurricane preparedness plans because, “It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season.”
Hurricane Season Caused Disruptions in 2025
While the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season finished with 13 named storms, five hurricanes, and four major hurricanes, several powerful systems forced cruise lines to make itinerary changes throughout the Caribbean and Atlantic.
Hurricane Erin became one of the season’s biggest disruptors in August. At least 21 ships across nine cruise lines altered itineraries as the storm strengthened in the Atlantic.
Royal Caribbean had several ships adjusting itineraries to steer clear of the storm, while Virgin Voyages, Norwegian Cruise Line, Carnival Cruise Line, Princess Cruises, and Holland America Line were all forced to adjust.
A month later, Hurricane Humberto created another wave of changes, with ships from MSC Cruises and Carnival Cruise Line all rerouted to avoid dangerous conditions in the Atlantic. At least a dozen ships were impacted as Humberto intensified to Category 4 strength.
The season’s strongest storm, Hurricane Melissa, also forced major adjustments to Western and Eastern Caribbean ports after becoming a Category 5 hurricane in October.
For 2026, a lighter hurricane season could still result in cruises being rerouted to avoid potential storms, as well as cancellations or delays. Passengers need to be flexible and understanding when cruising during hurricane season as cruise lines will prioritize guest and crew safety.
When itinerary changes become necessary, cruise lines will communicate directly with booked passengers, providing updates as storms develop and travel plans are adjusted.
Read Also: Cruising During Hurricane Season: What You Must Know!
NOAA will begin potential storm names with Arthur and end with Wilfred, while also rolling out several new forecasting tools.
The National Hurricane Center’s forecast cone graphic will now include inland tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, new storm surge products are being introduced for Hawaii, and data from unmanned aircraft will be incorporated into hurricane forecast models for the first time.
