Drive-thru restaurants are impacted when gas prices spike | Photo courtesy of Pexels/Erik Mclean.
Gas prices surged in March following the outbreak of the Iran War, including a nearly 50-cent jump in a single week.
Despite a preliminary agreement between the U.S. and Iran, don’t expect those pressures at the pump to ease anytime soon. There’s a reason energy analysts tend to refer to gas price swings as “up like a rocket, down like a feather.” Historically, whenever gas prices are pushed up by such a supply/demand event, fast-food restaurants with drive-thrus tend to take the biggest hit.
May traffic numbers in the segment seem to support this, as the residual effect of higher prices set in, three separate reports indicate an erosion of visitors during the month.
According to Revenue Management Solutions, QSR traffic declined -1.6% year-over-year in May, a step back from April’s -0.8%. Visits had been recovering since November 2025 before slipping again. RMS noted that the pullback tracks with what consumers have been saying all year: 38% of Americans report spending less at restaurants than a year ago, and visit frequency is where that cutback lands first.
Meanwhile, data from Placer.ai shows an even bigger decline in May, with QSR traffic down 4.4% year-over-year. Placer.ai’s index noted that increasing prices and tighter budgets are “weighing on consumer behavior — particularly among the typically value-conscious audiences of QSR and-fast casual chains.”
Additionally, short visits of less than 10 minutes are down considerably at both QSRs and fast casual chains, likely driven by a decline in drive-thru traffic. In May, short visits were down 6.8% year-over-year at QSRs and -1.9% at fast-casual restaurants.
“The drop in visits under 10 minutes to both segments — a duration typically associated with drive-thru, but also pickup, and delivery orders — suggests that diners are not only looking to reduce fuel consumption but are increasingly prioritizing the experience of dining out over the convenience of picking up food to go,” Placer.ai stated.
And, Bloomberg Intelligence data also found that traffic fell sequentially in May across family dining, fast causal, fine dining, and quick service. Check sizes grew 3.6%, partly offset by -1.8% in traffic. BI forecasts that same-store sales in QSR will slow to 0.2% in the second half of the year as worsening traffic, less tax-refunding spending, and inflation-led price hikes curb demand.
“The sharp gas-price spike and higher-than-expected food inflation will weigh on low- and middle-income consumer spending this year. Quick-service chains are responding with aggressive discounts,” Bloomberg Intelligence noted.
This forecast comes despite consumer sentiment showing signs of improvement in June, from record lows in May, according to the University of Michigan’s monthly survey. That said, sentiment overall remains historically downbeat, especially with lower-income consumers navigating a recent uptick in inflation.
The U.S. annual inflation jumped to a three-year high of 4.2% in May, largely driven by a major energy shock and rising oil prices stemming from the war in Iran. While energy costs surged, core inflation (excluding food and energy) remained relatively stable at 2.9%, suggesting the impact hasn’t deeply penetrated the broader economy yet.
If there is a silver lining for restaurants, it’s that most (70%) of QSR consumers’ dining behavior has held relatively steady given the broader economic pressures, according to RMS. Further, new research from the National Restaurant Association shows that 56% of consumers have spent their discretionary money at a restaurant recently, versus less than 25% who did the same for apparel, entertainment or electronics, meaning that restaurants remain a discretionary priority regardless of the macroeconomic picture.
Contact Alicia Kelso at Alicia.Kelso@informa.com
Follow her on TikTok: @aliciakelso
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