Chipotle and Taco Bell had very different years in 2025

Chipotle had its worst year in a decade, but this time we do not know exactly why. | Photo: Shutterstock.

Chipotle Mexican Grill and Taco Bell are the country’s two biggest Mexican chains, by far, and also the restaurant industry’s most consistent performers. For most of the past two decades, the two chains have considered sales growth a near birthright.

That continued in 2025 for one of those chains.

Taco Bell this week reported 7% same-store sales growth in the fourth quarter, according to parent company Yum Brands. It generated that same figure for the full year, despite an otherwise brutal period for the fast-food space and many of the younger, lower-income consumers that serve as the chain’s base. 

Chipotle, as my colleague Lisa Jennings pointed out, did not have such a year. Its same-store sales declined 1.7% in 2025, including 2.5% in the fourth quarter. 

The two chains are not typically considered rivals, though perhaps they should be, given Taco Bell’s apparently improving performance among the type of higher-income diners that typically get themselves a bowl from Chipotle.

Both chains have long enjoyed the benefits of an endlessly versatile menu. The ingredients that make up Mexican fare all tend to play well together.

For Taco Bell, this gives the company’s food scientists and marketers plenty of room to play around, and because their customers aren’t so concerned with things such as authenticity, they have all kinds of flexibility. That kind of innovation, coupled with the chain’s perceived value and the company’s marketing strength, has made the brand a powerhouse.

Side note: How important was Greg Creed, who led the chain from 2011 to 2015? Especially in hindsight? Taco Bell struggled before he took over. Since the chain’s sales turned positive in 2012 it has had three declines in same-store sales, one of them the quarantine quarter and the other two very modest declines.  

The same in many respects could be said about Chipotle, even if most of the innovating is done by consumers rather than the company itself. The beauty of Chipotle has always been in the customization of its menu and the fact that consumers, no matter how hard they try, really can’t wreck it. You can make it as healthy or as indulgent as you want and pay the same price, unless you add guacamole, that is.

Chipotle’s decline last year, frankly, remains something of a mystery. According to the company, most of its consumers make $100,000 a year or more, and those consumers are allegedly still spending money. While the company has responded to its sales challenges with smaller portion sizes and more innovation, none of it has really generated much traction. 

Consumers may be weary of the bowl phenomenon, which could explain weakness at Cava and far worse weakness at Sweetgreen. It may be due to the serving size controversy that hit the chain in 2024, which may have hurt the company’s value perception among cost-conscious consumers. 

Or maybe, as we said on The Week in Restaurants this week, consumers are going back into restaurants again and Chipotle’s shops are simply too uninviting. 

Regardless of the reason, Chipotle’s 2025 was one of the worst in its history. Outside of the quarantine quarter of 2020, the chain has not had a same-store sales decline since 2016, when it was dealing with a brutal fallout from a series of food safety incidents. Beyond that, the chain hasn’t had a sales decline in its history as a public company, a remarkable streak.

All companies go through sales challenges from time to time and this is, apparently, Chipotle’s turn. Yet at least in 2016 we knew why Chipotle was struggling. These days we’re just guessing.

With Taco Bell apparently luring everybody and anybody into its restaurants these days, we are left with the conclusion that the fast-food Mexican chain’s business is coming directly from the fast-casual Mexican chain.