Consumers have been cutting back on dining. That’s expected to continue. | Photo: Shutterstock.
Consumers are far more likely to say they’re going to cut back on restaurant spending than those who say they plan to spend more, highlighting a crucial industry challenge that’s reflected in persistently weak sales and traffic.
The survey data comes from the data and consulting firm Revenue Management Solutions (RMS), and the results are relatively equal across sectors.
For instance, a third of respondents say they plan to cut spending at quick-service restaurants, compared with just 11% who say they plan to spend more. By comparison, 32% plan to cut back on full-service restaurants, compared with 12% who say they plan to spend more.
To be sure, more than half of consumers say they are spending about the same. And as a rule, we are typically skeptical of consumer surveys on what they plan to spend, which is often an imperfect measure of their actual intent.
Yet in this same survey, when asked how much they’re currently spending, 15% of consumers said they are visiting quick-service restaurants more often, which was down 9% compared with the first quarter. That heralded traffic challenges that have beset restaurants this year.
Nearly 40% of consumers told RMS that they are spending less of their disposable income on restaurants. Among those consumers who say they are budget conscious, 57% say they are ordering less frequently, and 44% said they are ordering less to save money.
Restaurant chains have been dealing with weak traffic for the better part of two years. This year was expected to be better, but that never materialized. Consumer confidence plunged in the spring, which has dampened sales and traffic and turned 2025 into an uglier year than many expected.
And that spread well beyond just fast-food chains and some casual-dining brands. Several fast-casual chains have reported weakening sales, notably Chipotle, which is having its toughest year in nearly a decade.
“We certainly came into this year with a lot of optimism that things were going to be pretty strong,” Chad Moutray, chief economist for the National Restaurant Association, said for an upcoming episode of my podcast, A Deeper Dive. “And then we got tariffs, we got a lot of other things happening. I call this the year of shock and awe, certainly in the spring months.”
The data confirms that this difficult environment is likely to continue. And it confirms what industry executives have been saying, that the weak consumer environment doesn’t appear to be easing, at least among lower-income diners more stressed by inflation.
That concern has promised to intensify a value war that’s been in place for more than a year. Several brands have released new value offers of late. The Mexican fast-food chain Taco Bell featured a value component to its “Decades Y2K” menu. And McDonald’s next month is planning to give consumers steeper discounts on combo meals.
The survey data indicates that the value effort has yet to move the needle, at least with the U.S. consumer.
