- Intensification and Path: Tropical Storm Melissa is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane, possibly a major hurricane, and its path is expected to affect Jamaica and Cuba next week.
- Areas Under Watch/Warning: Jamaica is under a Hurricane Warning, while the southwestern peninsula of Haiti is under a Hurricane Watch.
- Significant Rainfall: Forecasts indicate 15 to 25 inches of rain for southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, with up to 35 inches possible in Haiti, raising concerns for catastrophic flooding and landslides.
- Florida Not Expected to Be Affected: A cold front is projected to keep Tropical Storm Melissa away from Florida.
Tropical Storm Melissa is currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center as it remains nearly stationary over the Caribbean Sea. As of Saturday, Melissa’s maximum sustained winds have increased to 70 mph, with a minimum central pressure recorded at 982 mb. The storm is situated approximately 160 miles south-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.
Forecasts indicate that Melissa is expected to undergo rapid intensification within the next 24 hours, with a projection to become a hurricane shortly and potentially a major hurricane by Sunday. The anticipated track suggests that the center of Melissa could move near or over Jamaica early next week, potentially reaching eastern Cuba by the middle of the week.
The NHC has advised residents in Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba to closely monitor the storm’s progression due to potential impacts. These areas face risks of heavy rain, flooding, strong winds, and hazardous surf conditions. A cold front is expected to steer the system away from Florida.
Currently, a Hurricane Warning is in effect for Jamaica, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti, extending from the Dominican Republic border to Port-Au-Prince. Rainfall totals are projected to be between 15 to 25 inches across parts of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica through Tuesday, with localized amounts possibly reaching 35 inches in Haiti’s Tiburon Peninsula. Continued heavy rainfall is anticipated beyond Tuesday, though exact totals remain uncertain. The potential for catastrophic flash flooding and landslides is noted for parts of Jamaica and the southern Dominican Republic, with catastrophic flash flooding specifically anticipated in southern Haiti.
