Operations
The month-over-month drop for restaurants was largely attributed to declining foot traffic, which fell 2.5% from May. Photo: Adobe Stockf
July 2, 2025
Sales at small business restaurants, including many fast casual concepts, saw a slight year-over-year increase of 0.4% in June, but experienced a sharper 2.6% decline compared to May 2025, according to the latest Fiserv Small Business Index.
The month-over-month drop for restaurants was largely attributed to declining foot traffic, which fell 2.5% from May. It follows a 5.6% decline in foot traffic from April to May, indicating a continued trend of fewer customers. Average ticket sizes for restaurants remained relatively flat, down 0.1%.
“Small business sales continue to be impacted by economic uncertainty, causing many consumers to spend with more caution,” Prasanna Dhore, chief data officer at Fiserv, said. “Discretionary spending declined again in June, and consumers diverted more dollars to the essentials.”
Overall, the Fiserv Small Business Index, which tracks spending activity at approximately 2 million U.S. small businesses, declined two points to 148 in June. While total small business sales grew 4.4% year-over-year, they decreased 1.4% month-over-month.
Key takeaways for fast casual operators:
- Foot traffic is a concern: The continued decline in customer visits is directly impacting sales. Operators may need to focus on strategies to drive traffic.
- Consumers are cautious: The shift in consumer spending toward essential goods and away from discretionary categories suggests diners may be more selective about their restaurant choices.
- Services outperform goods: While overall services saw a month-over-month decline, it was less pronounced than for goods. Food manufacturing, a service-based business, saw an 11.7% year-over-year increase, potentially indicating opportunities in areas like prepared meals or catering.
Groceries vs. fast casuals vs. QSRs
U.S. consumers are spending over twice as much on groceries as on food at restaurants, according to an article published Tuesday on FastCasual, revealing that consumers averaged $235 on groceries each week, compared to $115 spent on all restaurant meals.
Although it highlights the nationwide trend of tightened belts amid economic uncertainty, fast casual brands remain a significant portion of their dining-out budget, with nearly half (47%) of Americans frequenting them. QSR, however, was the most popular segment, with 69% of those surveyed choosing it. Casual dining (42%), pizzerias (38%) and coffee shops/cafes (18%) follow in popularity.
The findings come as two-thirds of U.S. consumers were scaling back personal expenses, with restaurants being the top area for cuts (61%), surpassing clothes/shoes (52%) and entertainment (49%).
“Consumers are growing more discerning with their finances as confidence in U.S. economic performance dips,” Brendan Sweeney, CEO and co-founder of Popmenu, said in a company press release. “Restaurants not only have to compete harder with one another, they have to compete with every other business out there trying to get a bigger share of consumer spend.”
The study, which surveyed 1,000 U.S. consumers in June 2025, also found that over half (57%) of consumers dined at or ordered from restaurants at least twice a week. Takeout was the preferred option for 44%, driven by a desire to avoid delivery fees and receive food faster, while 34% preferred dining in and 22% opted for delivery.
Looking specifically at summer budgets, 44% of consumers expect to decrease their restaurant spending, with only 18% anticipating an increase. To offset high grocery costs, nearly half of consumers are buying cheaper or generic food items (49%) and fewer snacks (47%), while 43% are focusing on necessities and using coupons.
